Glenn Croston--

An Inconvenient Bill: Progress on Climate Change Legislation with the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009

Change is in the wind. Overwhelming scientific evidence has accumulated that climate change is a dramatic threat to our economy and our world, but the U.S. Government’s response so far has been minimal. This may change with the landmark Waxman-Markey Bill, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (ACES) passed by the U.S. House of Representatives this week. This bill could go a long way toward tackling the global climate crisis and getting our economy back on track as well.

Critics thought Al Gore was alarmist when An Inconvenient Truth came out in 2006, but if anything, climate change looks even worse today just a few years later. Greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise as fast as ever, with temperatures changing and oceans rising faster than was imagined. The impact can be seen in shifting seasons, and altered rain and snow right here in the U.S. Climate change is not all about melting polar ice and it’s not just a problem for polar bears – we all have a great deal at stake.

Getting approved by the House of Representatives is a big achievement for a climate bill, but the ACES still has a long way to go. Passing the House by a thin-margin of 219 in favor and 212 opposed, the bill must be taken up the Senate this Fall and get 60 votes to avoid getting stuck in the dreaded filibuster.

The bill is a good start, but the devil is in the details, and there are still some devilish details to be worked out.

The bill targets a 17% reduction below 2005 levels by 2020 and an 83% reduction by 2050 using a cap and trade system, capping greenhouse gas emissions and giving or auctioning carbon allowances to the major greenhouse emitters like power producers. It’s likely that most of the allowances will be distributed without cost at first, with more and more of them auctioned over time to emitters who need credits to meet their targets. The need to spend money to reduce emissions or buy allowances is one of the driving forces behind such measures designed to fight climate change. The caps allow less and less emission of greenhouse gases over time, which will make the carbon credits increasingly valuable, creating the financial incentive to lower your emissions.

Over 1000 pages long, the ACES contains a host of provisions to support energy efficiency, requires renewable energy production, and provides for the training of green collar workers. It also harnesses other mechanisms to slow the rate of climate change, supporting tropical forest preservation, a very cost effective way to fight climate change. Deforestation is one of the biggest contributors to climate change, and it is much cheaper keeping forests in the ground than trying to sequester carbon dioxide from coal-fired power plants, a technology that has yet to be proven. Farm offsets are another measure in the current version of the bill, allowing for farmers to sell carbon offsets if they use farming methods that keep carbon in the ground.

Critics of the ACES are saying the cost of implementing the ACES will be dramatic; they cite numbers that project a cost of thousands of dollars a year per household. These values are exaggerated. “Critics have vastly overstated the likely cost. In fact, they're all but lying,” says Time Magazine (June 27 2009). Most businesses that are heavily invested in the high-carbon economy of the past will not be keen about the shift to the low carbon economy of the future.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates passage of the bill will cost the average American household about $175 a year, largely through increased costs for power. The EPA estimates a slightly lower cost, $80 to $110 a year. These numbers are probably closer to the truth. There will be a cost, it's true, but there would be a heavier cost of doing nothing.

The argument against the bill goes like this: “It will cost money, therefore it’s a tax.” And since any tax is bad, any amount paid for climate change is bad, no matter how small. I think that the response to this, to provide a fair comparison, is to look at the cost of doing nothing. The Stern Report found that failure to take action to slow the rate of climate change would cause a 5% loss of GDP every year, worse than our economic meltdown. Let’s call this the “Do Nothing Tax of 2009.” We can create a campaign to write in to senators who oppose Waxman-Markey, praising them for their courage in supporting the “Do Nothing Tax of 2009."

If we do take action with climate change legislation however, the impact could be dramatically positive. Passage of the ACES bill would unleash a wave of innovation to create the new low carbon economy of the future. This economy will be far more efficient, less wasteful, cleaner, and more sustainable, as well as being more economically productive and competitive on the world stage. Passage of this Act makes the U.S. an important player in the 21^st century economy. Failure to pass it puts us on the sidelines, watching others pass us by.

Businesses in a wide range of fields would benefit from passage of the ACES. Businesses in renewable energy, energy efficiency, electric cars, green buildings, new farming methods, and many others will all benefit. Energy efficiency auditors like Pro Energy Consultants are needed to retrofit millions of homes. Contractors affected by slow building market are getting back to work greening buildings as well. Solar and wind businesses will grow exponentially as we shift away from coal, blanketing rooftops everywhere with photovoltaic panels and creating solar carports like Envision Solar.

The process has already started, stimulated by measures passed with the bailout bill in October of 2008 and the stimulus bill of February 2009, but we still have a long way to go. A very long way.

So who do we want to be? What kind of country do we want to have? Do we want to hunker down and cling to the high-carbon economy of the past, closing our eyes and hoping that climate change will go away, or do we want to embrace something new and better, moving forward to create a better world for all of us and for our kids?

There’s still more to be done. The Senate probably won’t get around to working on the bill until September. Forces on both sides will keep up the heat, working behind the scenes and in the news, with pundits armed with every tool they can muster. And even if the bill does pass, many feel that it is still not enough.

Greenpeace has already pulled their support, and others will as well, saying that the measures are too watered down by political compromise to achieve what must really be done.

That’s probably true as well. The ACES may not ultimately be enough on its own to take on the enormity of the challenge ahead. But it’s probably about as good as we’re going to get for now. It the bill fails to pass, this does not mean a more aggressive bill will follow soon. So we should all take this bill and embrace, and push as hard as we can for it to pass, and then start working on the next round to do even more (Copenhagen, here we come). There will be posturing, and debating, and some give and take, and concessions, and ultimately, I hope, the bill will be passed. Then we can uncork our low-carbon champagne and have a great party. And then when the party is over we can continue working to build a healthy and low carbon future we can all be proud of.

Glenn Croston, PhD. is passionate about the environment, writing extensively about the importance of finding solutions that ensure a bright, green future for the rest of the living world and for ourselves. With a PhD in biochemistry from UC San Diego, Croston himself is a green entrepreneur. After his college studies in biology, he worked for a year at a marine toxicology lab, studying the impact of oil spill cleanup agents on marine life along the central coast of California near Carmel.

Croston’s commitment to a more sustainable planet starts at home, in San Diego, where he lives with his wife and two daughters. Their lifestyle includes a hybrid car, solar panels, compact fluorescent light bulbs, and composting.

Croston is a member of Union of Concerned Scientists, NRDC, Sustainable Conservation and Environment California. He is also the founder of Starting Up Green, a Fast Company expert blogger, and the creator of the Green Biz Blast. Croston is the author of several books in the biochemistry field, 75 Green Businesses (McGraw-Hill/ Aug 2008), and a new book, Starting Green (Entrepreneur Press/ Sep 2009) which provides the definitive guide to start and grow green businesses.

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